Clinton Betting Against Assad as Annan Named Syria Envoy
By Nicole Gaouette
(Updates with analyst comment in fifth paragraph.)
Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said there are signs that Syrian officials are beginning to desert Bashar al-Assads government, and shes betting against his survival.
There is growing evidence that some of the officials in the Syrian government are beginning to hedge their bets -- moving assets, moving family members, Clinton said in London before departing for Tunisia, where international backers of the Syrian opposition are meeting today. If I were a betting person for the medium term and certainly the long term, I would be betting against Assad.
On the eve of the talks, the United Nations and Arab League appointed former UN chief Kofi Annan to be special envoy on the Syrian crisis. He will consult broadly in order to end the violence and the humanitarian crisis and facilitate a peaceful Syrian-led and inclusive political solution, they said.
Clinton will join European Unio! n and Ar ab foreign ministers in Tunis to discuss ways to help the Syrian opposition. The death toll in the governments crackdown on protests has risen to about 8,500, according to the Arab Organization for Human Rights. Russia and China have blocked UN Security Council resolutions calling for Assad to step down.
Yemen Model
Nobody now wants to use military force against Syria, and that means the only thing is to ratchet up political pressure and maybe get the Russians on board, given that they can still talk to Assad, so as to maybe get a situation like in Yemen, said Volker Perthes, director of the Berlin-based Institute for International and Security Affairs and author of several books on Syria and the Arab world. Yemens former President Ali Abdullah Saleh agreed to cede power to his deputy in return for immunity from prosecution.
At the same time, building golden bridges for people high in the regime who may want to leave is a way to speed Assads end, he said. It needs to be made clear to these people that they wont starve if they leave for Lebanon, Europe or elsewhere.
Assads government says armed terrorist groups with foreign support are responsible for the violence.
Syrian troops today continued their three-week bombardment of Homs, the countrys third-largest city, where two western journalists were among the fatalities this week. Al-Jazeera television today showed footage of another three reporters who said they are stranded in Syria.
Arming Opposition
French journalist Edith Bouvier, whose leg was broken in the attack that killed the Sunday Timess Marie Colvin and photographer Remi Ochlik, pleaded in the video for a cease-fire so she can be evacuated and receive appropriate medical care. The doctors here treated us very well, as much as they can, but they are not able to undertake surgeries, she said.
Clinton said pressure will build on Syria and its allies Russia and China.
She said U.S. has disagreed with allies such as Qatar about arming the opposi! tion, re flecting U.S. concern about further militarizing the conflict. There is evidence that within the fragmented opposition, democratic elements may be out-muscled by radical Sunni Muslims, including some allied with al-Qaedas Iraqi affiliate, two U.S. officials said yesterday. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they arent authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
Loss of Legitimacy
Assads government will probably last into 2013, according to Joshua Landis, director of the Middle East Studies program at the University of Oklahoma in Norman.
Despite his regimes rapid loss of legitimacy, its growing isolation and tanking economy, no countervailing force has yet emerged that can take it down, Landis wrote on the Middle East Policy Council website.
There are other divisions among the nations meeting in Tunis, which have labeled themselves the Friends of Syria. France floated the idea of establishing a humanitarian aid corridor, which was rejected by the U.S. and others.
Clinton said she expected concrete progress in todays meeting in three areas -- getting humanitarian relief to Syrians, increasing pressure on the government and preparing for a democratic transition. The group expects Syria to allow aid into the country within days, said a U.S. official who wasnt authorized to be quoted by name.
--With assistance from Leon Mangasarian in Berlin, Massoud Derhally in Beirut and Ladane Nasseri in Dubai. Editors: Leon Mangasarian, Eddie Buckle, Ben Holland, Karl Maier.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicole Gaouette in Washington at ngaouette@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net