CHARTOCK: Hillary Clinton has inside track for president
By ALAN CHARTOCKFreeman columnist
It is really way too early to handicap the next presidential contest but we can begin to parse what has happened up until now.
Theres no question about who New Yorkers will vote for if Hillary Clinton runs for the top office. Shell get their votes for any number of reasons:
They love her. Virtually every poll shows her to be the most admired woman in the world.
They love Bill Clinton, who retired as one of the most popular presidents in U.S. history (and they know that the 65-year-old Hillary was his co-president for two terms.
They know that in a world filled with international problems, Hillary has had incredible experience with running U.S. foreign policy. No one knows more than she does.
They know that Barack Obama has Hillarys back and that he owes her big time for helping him in his first successful term. I suspect that he is a man who pays his debts.
They know that Hillary will be the first woman president of this country and that its about time.
They know that she is uncompromisingly tough and knows how to roll with the punches witness the Monica Lewinsky affair.
Of course Hillarys health has to hold up and, even more importantly, she has to decide that she wants the job. She has indicated that shes had enough, but its hard to believe that she wouldnt want the very job that she was denied four years ago. How many people would really turn down the opportunity to serve as president?
There may be some tough competition, however. Continued...
Vice President Joe Biden has proven his mettle again and again. And then you have some young upstarts like Martin OMalley, the 50-year-old governor of Maryland, who would pull well in the southern states and, of course, 56-year-ol! d Andrew Cuomo, who coyly says hes not interested.
No one should count Cuomo out. He seldom makes a mistake. His recent championing of gun control legislation is gutsy and brilliant. His fury at the way New York has been treated by the federal government in the wake of Hurricane Sandy has to be admired, just as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christies anger towards his own Republicans is to be admired.
Of course, by taking on Washington, Cuomo risks alienating Obama. After all, the president came to New York and New Jersey and promised the people hed make things right.
Finally, Cuomo is young. Biden would be 74 if elected. Cuomo has lots of time to finesse the situation and may figure the country wants some younger blood at the helm. He may also figure that his popularity might go down and that this might be his opportunity to grab the golden ring in a game where you seldom get more than one chance at the nations top job.
There are other politicians who might be in line for the job.
Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is a brilliant and very nice man who is adored in the Bay State. He is a very good friend of the presidents and has always had a major presence in the Obama campaigns.
If the president chooses him as the next attorney general, and if he performs as well in that job as he has as governor of Massachusetts, and if he has the stomach for a national campaign, he might well turn out to be a favorite.
So, in order to figure out where we are you have to analyze all the ifs.
If Hillary stays healthy and decides to run, she certainly will be the front runner. If she doesnt run and Biden decides hes had enough, there will be an open field for all the young Turks, including Cuomo, who might be better off campaigning for the vice presidential job.
As they say in radio, stay tuned. Continued...
Sunday Freeman columnist Alan Chartock is a professor emeritus at the State University of New York, publisher of the Legislative Gazette and president of the WAMC Northeast Public Radio Network.